My Predictions for 2012

Posted on December 11, 2011. Filed under: Uncategorized |

Here are some totally uninformed predictions for 2012. This cold weather and xmas vibe in NYC has me thinking in terms of random annual delineations:

1)   Facebook’s IPO will represent the top tick of the tech/venture cycle.  (It won’t be a precipitous decline after, but that will be the peak of this cycle) The early bubble prognosticators who have attempted to “call the bust” were a healthy 12-18 months early.  I would be a seller between now and then OR make sure you have the revenue/financing to make it through the 24 months after, because things are going to be nice and illiquid (or semi-liquid…like flan…or something like that).

2)   Twitter will try to go public shortly after Facebook.  They will try to get out and enjoy the stupid public market’s inability to discern between 2 “social media companies.”  Shareholders in Twitter will get rich.  Public market buyers who go long and hold will take a bath.

3)   The big boys are going to have their day.  As the Series A crunch materializes…and believe me…it is materializing…a swath of seed funded companies that aren’t “slap you in the face breaking out” will have to work very hard to get their follow on capital.  Many won’t.  Large venture funds, who will no longer be distracted by the now past window for late stage growth checks in scaled assets (Airbnb, Linkedin, Gilt, etc…), will return to their roots in Series A investments.  Bottom heavy firms like Bessemer and Bain Capital Ventures, who have the resources to comb through the noise of seed funded companies looking for A rounds are well positioned to find the diamonds in the rough.  Those funds will make some spectacular bets at spectacular prices.

4)   Foursquare is going to have a bananas year.  As someone who watches the space closer than most, I can honestly say they make all the right moves.  The decision making and vision within that company is not to be underestimated.  The geo-enabled ad curve and SMB/Merchant tech adoption curves are aligning perfectly.  If I could buy stock at current market valuation in any single company on the web, I’d put my $ here.

5)   Oracle is going to buy 10Gen (MongoDB) for more than $400M

6)   Commerce 2.0 is going to fall out of favor.  Venture $ will continue to chase the early and steep revenue curves but as multiple years of data on the early innovators emerges, it will show flattening curves and margin challenges.  Those that were “first” by vertical will exit and exit well.  All the rest will mature into unexciting semi-scaled assets incapable of raising B and C round $ to sustain.  See “e-commerce” in Wikipedia for analog.

7)   Data is the new content.  Content is data.  Kenny once taught me that there is a cycle of opportunity that shifts between distribution and creation of content.  Once content is created, innovation in distribution is where you get rich.  Once distribution is fully built out and commoditized, content creation to fill the new pipes is where you get rich (the two curves go back and forth).  If Data is the new content, we’ve been in a phase of massive creation for the past few years…it’s time to build out distribution…The distribution layer in the data ecosystem is going to be an epic market.  API infrastructure, new authentication paradigms, and the tracking of data’s movement across environments are going to be hotbeds for early stage innovation and investment.

If you think my predictions suck, step up with your own in the comments…

 

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13 Responses to “My Predictions for 2012”

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They dont suck and I live by number 7 at stocktwits and what i try and harp on with entrepreneurs …i think enterprise will be nirvana for bankers and dip buyers too. Oracle will have to keep buying stuff.

I would stay away from calling tops or bottoms because you wont get wealthy or really should not try doing it with your money so why bother.

thanks howard.

the tops or bottoms thing, i just get really frustrated when people predict declines or growth without ascribing a timeline to them…it’s valuable and actionable with that piece of context, but not without it…

Best point is your discussion about content creation vs. distribution. Definitely agree with this.

Not sure I agree on #6. I think there’s still a lot of opportunity in the space. In no particular order:

– The full effects eBay’s acquisitions of GSI and Magento aren’t obvious yet. I’d bet big on the new x.com

– Mobile commerce is sill in-mature

– Shift from search to discovery. Starting to see this with all these curated/boutique sites (Park and Bond, Open Sky, etc)

-don’t know about GSI factor

-mobile commerce immaturity is true, but if there’s innovation here it represent commerce 3.0…nothing in market now leveraging this trend and payment seems like a gating factor here

– think discovery trend is already baked in, disagree

Sort of agree with Ashish here. I don’t think discovery is already baked in, otherwise people wouldn’t be so ridiculously excited about Pinterest (not an e-commerce company, but will likely contribute heavily to product discovery). Fab and BeachMint aren’t succeeding because they we’re first movers in unique verticals, they’re succeeding b/c of awesome curation. I think this 1) spells an opportunity for a variety of Commerce 2.0 successes 2) offers a chance for existing, on-the-ground, retailers to jump into the online flash sales/curated product space, which should mean exit opportunities not only for the tip-top but also the upper middle crust. Right now, the flash sales companies are trying to pull over buyers. Eventually, the companies they’re stealing from are going to realize the opportunity themselves.

You’re going to see more “Hautelooks” acquired by “Nordstroms”

fair…to be honest, i think i have a little blind spot in curation and the fabs/pinterests of the world. you are not the only two who have pushed back on that prediction. I am going to study harder, if I change my opinion i’ll update here. thanks for the thinking

Facebook setting off the bubble would frustrating for all of the smaller startups out there! FourSquare blowing up is a bold forecast but with Crowley and his talented team, along with the solid USV backing them the sky is the limit!

Interesting predictions Jordan!

[…] My Predictions for 2012 « Jordan Cooper's Blog: startups, venture …By jordancooper-mobile commerce immaturity is true, but if there's innovation here it represent commerce 3.0…nothing in market now leveraging this trend and payment seems like a gating factor here. – think discovery trend is already baked in, disagree …Jordan Cooper's Blog: startups,… […]

What you say is probably true…
I’d say 70% of what you say here will come true.
Data is the new currency….
That’s why Apple has a Data Centre Farm…
All looked into years ahead of time

[…] My Predictions for 2012 « Jordan Cooper’s Blog: startups, venture … By jordancooper -mobile commerce immaturity is true, but if there’s innovation here it represent commerce 3.0…nothing in market now leveraging this trend and payment seems like a gating factor here. – think discovery trend is already baked in, disagree … Jordan Cooper’s Blog: startups,… […]

Couldn’t agree more on 3 (although admittedly a lot of my perspective here is through conversations with you), 4 (my engagement with this product/service continue to go up and their integration and selection of partners has been fantastic thus far) and 7 if you and your company aren’t geeing out on data chances are I’m not going to be a it fan).

On 6 trying to do a bit of research here of my own and will post when I do. My gut is that we’re still scratching the surface on how #7 and e-comm/mobile comm play with each other.

[…] As I articulated in my 2012 predictions, I believe Facebooks IPO will be the top tick of the tech cycle, but here’s […]


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    I’m a NYC based investor and entrepreneur. I think there is one metric that can be used to measure the value of a human life and that’s impact. How did you change things? How many people did you touch? How different is the world because you lived in it and how positive was the change that you affected? (p.s. i don’t use spell check…deal with it) You can email me at Jordan.Cooper@gmail.com

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