Moving in Ambiguous Markets

Posted on August 25, 2011. Filed under: Hyperpublic, startups, venture capital |

I love times like this. It’s one of those times when markets don’t know what to do. Uncertainty in a market is code for all the fucking idiots that represent the middle of a market (aka the followers) don’t know what to do because the thought leaders have begun to diverge in their opinions of future direction and “what’s going to happen.” I love times like this because pricing starts to fluctuate, and opportunity becomes more accessible with the middle of the market sitting on the sidelines waiting for someone to tell them what to do. Even if the middle of the market is active, they still look to follow, and without a loud signal of consensus, 50% of that middle pushes their stack behind thought leaders who are thinking wrong. Again, markets become inefficient, and in that inefficiency lies opportunity. I love this type of market because it rewards conviction. Swift, decisive action, without looking over your shoulder at the guy or girl who disagrees wins the day when ambiguity is abound, and doubt is the equivalent of playing poker on “tilt.” Also, in times of ambiguity, markets move more predictably around events. In the absence of strong directional signal from the thought leaders in a market, the middle moves and overreacts to the sentiment of events, independent of their magnitude or actual implications. Again, opportunity follows.

To all you chumps who aren’t sure if now is a good time to start a company, or to be a seed investor, or an A round investor, or a last money in investor, or long public equities, or long internet stocks, etc. , etc., etc. sack up, there’s money to be made in every market all the time. If you were good when times were clear, you can be good now. Stop watching the game waiting to see how it ends, pick your helmet up off the ground, and run the fucking ball into the end zone yourself. God.

And to all you thought leaders out there, enjoy. Now is your time. Move fast, ignore signal from the middle of the market, it is the uninformed parrot of ambiguity.